📢 Weekly Blast #35 (26Aug-30Aug2024)
Snapshot of actionable insights from the Polish stock exchange
👋 Welcome to the Weekly Blast - a snapshot of actionable insights from the past week you don't want to miss: recommendations, insider trading, company updates, significant contracts for small & mid caps, M&A activities, upcoming events and trends.
In case you missed it:
If you like Polish microcaps, you'll enjoy my latest deep dive 👇
In today's edition:
💲 Polish Macro
Employment and Labor Market
Unemployment Rate: In July 2024, the unemployment rate was 5.0%, up from 4.9% in the previous month, according to the Central Statistical Office
Labor Force Survey: The unemployment rate measured by the Labor Force Survey was 2.7% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter
Remote Work: In the second quarter of 2024, 10.2% of all workers in Poland worked remotely
2025 Employment Predictions: The government predicts a 0.4% increase in employment in the national economy in 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.9% by the end of the year
Labor Market Indicator: The Labor Market Indicator, which predicts future unemployment changes, rose by 0.5 points to 70.1 points in August 2024, indicating no major economic fluctuations
Investment and Business
Investment Decline: In the first half of 2024, non-financial companies invested 87.6 billion PLN, which is 5.5% less than the previous year
Drop in Investments: In August, compared to May, the share of companies reporting a drop in investments increased by 2.5 percentage points to 32.5% in industry and by 3.2% to 30.3% in construction
Net Financial Result: The net financial result of enterprises in the first half of 2024 was 96.3 billion PLN, 28.2% lower than the previous year
Deregulation Package: After the holidays, the first deregulation package for entrepreneurs will be submitted to the Sejm, including solutions like shortening company inspections and introducing online leasing agreements
4-Day Work Week Warning: The Ministry of Development and Technology warns against a 4-day work week, fearing it could lead to company bankruptcies and a labor market collapse
Work Permit Opposition: The Ministry of Development and Technology and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development oppose proposed work permit limits for foreigners and fees for companies applying for them
Economy and Finance
Industrial Orders: In July 2024, new industrial orders remained unchanged year-on-year after a 1.4% decline the previous month, while export orders increased by 0.7% year-on-year
Economic Indicator: In August 2024, the overall synthetic economic indicator for Poland was 96.4, up from 95.2 the previous month
Cargo Transportation: Cargo transportation increased by 1.2% year-on-year in July 2024 to 45.569 million tons
Wholesale Sales: Wholesale sales by trading companies rose by 4.0% year-on-year in July 2024, with a 1.6% month-on-month increase
Loan Growth: Banks and credit unions saw an increase in loans in July 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, with the average mortgage loan amounting to 420,000 PLN, 12% higher than the previous year
GDP Growth: Poland's GDP grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter compared to 2.0% in the first quarter of 2024
Economic Sentiment: The Economic Sentiment Indicator for Poland was 100.0 points in August, up from 99.7 points in July
Inflation Expectations: Consumer inflation expectations rose to 40.4 points in August 2024 from 37.4 points in July
Positive Investment Result: The National Bank of Poland's investment result in 2023 was positive at 18.9 billion PLN, compared to -28.8 billion PLN in 2022
Consumer Prices: Consumer prices increased by 4.3% year-on-year in August 2024, with a 0.1% month-on-month rise
2025 Budget Plan: The government forecasts a 4.3% increase in private consumption, a 6.4% rise in investments, and no energy price freeze in the 2025 budget plan, but they are looking for a mechanism to manage energy costs
Interest Rate Outlook: There might be a chance to lower interest rates in 2025, but it requires caution to avoid large fluctuations in the Polish currency exchange rate