📢 Weekly Blast #39 (23Sep-27Sep2024)
Snapshot of actionable insights from the Polish stock exchange
👋 Welcome to the Weekly Blast - a snapshot of actionable insights from the past week you don't want to miss: recommendations, insider trading, company updates, significant contracts for small & mid caps, M&A activities, upcoming events and trends.
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11B.WA
Mcap 773,5 mpln
In today's edition:
📰 Top Stories
This year's flood in Poland affected parts of four provinces. It is mainly a local problem. A state of emergency covers 28 counties and a few towns. About 2.5 million people live there.Â
However, only about 57,000 people were significantly affected.
The flood's financial impact is small compared to the 1997 "millennium flood." That flood caused losses equal to 2.5% of the GDP at the time.Â
Current estimates suggest losses between 3-5 billion PLN, with a maximum loss of 9 billion PLN.
Satellite data shows that about 34,000 hectares were flooded. About 1% of buildings and roads in these areas were damaged. These regions contribute only about 5-6% to Poland's GDP.
The government plans to spend up to 23 billion PLN on flood recovery. This amount is more than the estimated losses. However, this spending will not boost GDP much because other public spending will be reduced, and EU funds will be reallocated.
Overall, the flood's impact on Poland's economy is expected to be small. Economic growth projections remain unchanged. GDP growth is expected to be 3.0% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.
💲 Polish Macro
Economic Growth
The Polish economy might be doing better than monthly data suggests, with GDP growth expected around 3% this year.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development raised its growth forecast for Poland to 3.2% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025.
S&P Global Ratings increased Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.0% and for 2025 to 3.4%.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
The National Bank of Poland expects inflation (CPI) to be 4.3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
The Polish central bank plans to keep its inflation target at 2.5% with a range of +/- 1 percentage point in 2025.
Discussions about lowering interest rates might start in March 2025.
Labor Market and Trade
The unemployment rate in Poland was 5.0% in August 2024, the same as the previous month.
Average nominal wages in the public sector rose by 25.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024.
Wholesale sales by trade companies fell by 3.8% year-on-year in August 2024, reversing a previous increase.