📢 Weekly Blast #44 (28-31Oct2024)
Snapshot of actionable insights from the Polish stock exchange
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In today's edition:
💲 Polish Macro
Inflation and Economic Growth
Consumer prices in October 2024 increased by 5.0% year-on-year and 0.3% compared to the previous month, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
The Central Statistical Office revised the GDP growth estimate for Q1 2024 to 2.1% year-on-year from the previously estimated 2.0%, while maintaining Q2 growth at 3.2%.
The Ministry of Finance forecasts average annual inflation for 2024 at 3.7%, down from the previously predicted 6.6%.
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Poland dropped to 98.4 points in October from 102.0 points in September, according to the European Commission.
Consumer inflation expectations in Poland fell to 33.2 points in October from 35.8 points in September, according to European Commission data.
Employment and Labor Market
The number of employed people in Poland's national economy at the end of May 2024 was 15,119,200, according to GUS.
The unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, was 2.9% in September, unchanged from August, making it the second lowest in the EU, per Eurostat.
The Warsaw region had the highest employment rate among EU regions in 2023, according to Eurostat.
The number of employed people in Poland's national economy at the end of December 2023 was 15,178,100, according to GUS.
Fiscal Policy and Investments
Foreign direct investment inflows into Poland amounted to $666 million in Q2 2024, according to OECD estimates.
The public finance deficit in 2024 is expected to be close to 5.7% of GDP, according to Finance Minister Andrzej Domański.
The government has approved a budget amendment for 2024, raising the maximum budget deficit from PLN 184 billion to PLN 240.3 billion.
VAT revenues are expected to be PLN 23 billion lower than previously forecasted, while CIT revenues will be PLN 11 billion lower, according to Finance Minister Andrzej Domański.
Two new innovation support funds will be created: a Critical Technology Support Fund with PLN 4 billion and a Digital and Environmentally Friendly Transformation Fund with PLN 800 million starting in 2025.