📢 Weekly Blast #45 (04-08Nov2024)
Snapshot of actionable insights from the Polish stock exchange
👋 Welcome to the Weekly Blast - a snapshot of actionable insights from the past week you don't want to miss: recommendations, insider trading, company updates, significant contracts for small & mid caps, M&A activities, upcoming events and trends.
In case you missed it:
Poland’s job gaps:
Dino Polska Q3-2024:
Here’s my latest deep dive on a Polish micro-cap. Enjoy!
In today's edition:
💲 Polish Macro
Economic Activity
The PMI for Poland's manufacturing sector in October was 49.2 points, up from 48.6 in September.
Retail sales in Poland fell by 3.0% year-on-year in September, following a 0.7% rise in August.
The unemployment rate in Poland remained at 5.0% in October, unchanged from the previous month.
The Polish economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, 3.4% in 2025, and 2.8% in 2026, according to the central NBP projection.
E-commerce in Poland grew by 3.5% in October compared to the previous month.
Monetary Policy and Inflation
The Polish central bank kept its reference interest rate unchanged at 5.75% in November 2024.
Inflation in Poland is forecasted to be between 4.2% and 6.6% in 2025, and 1.4% to 4.1% in 2026.
Core inflation in Poland could stay above 4% in the coming quarters, according to the central bank.
The central bank expects CPI inflation to reach 3.7% in 2024, 5.6% in 2025, and drop to 2.7% in 2026.
The central bank may begin discussing interest rate cuts in March 2025 if inflation stabilizes.
Fiscal Policy and Government Initiatives
Poland plans to submit more payment requests from the EU recovery fund in December, though the amount will likely be less than 40 billion PLN.
Two new EU-funded programs to support business innovation will launch in mid-2025, with budgets of 4 billion PLN and nearly 1 billion PLN.
Poland is one of the safest countries in the EU in terms of payment card fraud, according to the central bank.
The public finance deficit in Poland may exceed government forecasts in both 2024 and 2025, according to the central bank.
23 professions are expected to face labor shortages in Poland in 2025, down from 29 in 2024.