Polish Stocks

Polish Stocks

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Polish Stocks
Polish Stocks
📢 Weekly Blast #46 (11-15Nov2024)
📢 Weekly Blast

📢 Weekly Blast #46 (11-15Nov2024)

Snapshot of actionable insights from the Polish stock exchange

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Polish Stocks
Nov 17, 2024
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Polish Stocks
Polish Stocks
📢 Weekly Blast #46 (11-15Nov2024)
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👋 Welcome to the Weekly Blast - a snapshot of actionable insights from the past week you don't want to miss: recommendations, insider trading, company updates, significant contracts for small & mid caps, M&A activities, upcoming events and trends.

In case you missed it:

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Here’s my latest deep dive on a Polish micro-cap. Enjoy!

Ugly and sexy – profits don't care about looks. Taking a deep dive into a Polish small-cap. (1)

Ugly and sexy – profits don't care about looks. Taking a deep dive into a Polish small-cap. (1)

Polish Stocks
·
October 16, 2024
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Full list of write ups on Polish equities:

EQUITIES

EQUITIES

S.O.S.
·
November 6, 2022
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In today's edition:


💲 Polish Macro

Monetary Policy

  • Interest rate cuts are most likely to be discussed in the third quarter of 2025, according to a member of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP).

  • The latest projection from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has moved the discussion on interest rate cuts to March 2025, with potential cuts between 25-50 basis points (bp) and a total reduction of 50-100 bp for the year.

  • The NBP expects inflation to decrease to its target by March 2025, allowing for gradual monetary policy easing, with potential rate cuts happening at a pace of 25 bp each time, up to 100 bp in 2025.

  • In October, the RPP rejected a proposal to raise interest rates by 200 bp, with only one member, Joanna Tyrowicz, supporting the hike, while the majority voted against it.

  • Another RPP member believes that enough economic indicators could support discussions about lowering interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2025.

Economic Growth and Industry

  • Poland's GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2024, slowing from 3.2% growth in the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) basis, GDP fell by 0.2% in Q3 after rising by 1.2% in the previous quarter.

  • Industrial production in Poland, adjusted for working days, declined by 1.3% in September 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, following a 0.5% drop in August, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector.

  • By September 2024, Poland recorded a trade surplus of 3.0 billion euros, meaning the country exported more than it imported, contributing positively to the economy.

  • Exports of key goods, including investment products, transport equipment, and supply goods, fell sharply in September, reflecting weaker demand in international markets.

  • The average monthly gross wage in Poland increased by 13.4% y/y in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 8,161.62 PLN, showing continued upward wage pressure.

  • There were 104 business bankruptcies in Q3 2024, a 19.5% increase compared to the same period in 2023, indicating financial difficulties for some companies.

  • In October, 17,199 companies were deregistered from the REGON system, which is a 0.2% increase month-on-month (m/m), suggesting a challenging business environment for some firms.

Inflation and Prices

  • Consumer prices for goods and services rose by 5.0% y/y in October 2024, with food and clothing prices contributing the most to the increase. Month-on-month, prices were up by 0.3%.

  • The cost of services provided by banks and other financial institutions increased by 7.1% y/y in October, reflecting higher fees for consumers and businesses.

  • Prices for telecommunications services, such as phone and internet, increased by 1.8% y/y in October 2024, showing a moderate rise in the cost of these essential services.

  • Around 60% of companies in Poland raised their prices in 2024, according to a report from the Polish Economic Institute, largely due to rising costs.

  • The WPI (Leading Indicator of Price Changes), which predicts future price trends, remained unchanged in November compared to October, indicating stable inflation expectations in the short term.


🛒 Insider Trading

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