📢 Weekly Blast #47 (18-22Nov2024)
Snapshot of actionable insights from the Polish stock exchange
👋 Welcome to the Weekly Blast - a snapshot of actionable insights from the past week you don't want to miss: recommendations, insider trading, company updates, significant contracts for small & mid caps, M&A activities, upcoming events and trends.
In case you missed it:
On Monday Nov 18th, I had a pleasure to be a guest speaker in X Spaces hosted by Andy. The topic was: Investing outside the US. This is a must-listen if you invest in emerging markets, including the Polish stock market.
Here’s the recording of the Spaces:
Feel free to share!
Here’s my deep dive on the company I mentioned during the discussion.
Full list of write ups on Polish equities:
In today's edition:
💲 Polish Macro
Monetary Policy
There is a significant likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2025, but these will likely happen in the second half of the year due to delayed effects of fiscal policy.
Slower GDP growth in 2024 increases the probability of interest rate reductions next year as the economy weakens.
Core inflation in October 2024 dropped to 4.1% year-on-year from 4.3% in September, but monthly inflation rose slightly to 0.4%.
Discussions about interest rate cuts may begin as early as March 2025, depending on inflation trends and the lagging impact of monetary policy.
Inflation is expected to peak between 5.0-5.5% in the first half of 2025, with average inflation for 2024 estimated at 3.3-3.5%.
Maintaining energy price caps could reduce average inflation in 2025 to 4.3%, but inflation is still anticipated to rise early in the year.
Inflation measured by HICP remained steady at 4.2% year-on-year in October 2024, with a 0.3% monthly increase.
The National Bank of Poland increased its gold reserves to 13.734 million ounces in October 2024, up from 13.494 million ounces in September.
Economic Growth and Labor Market
Consumer sentiment worsened in November 2024 compared to October, reflecting growing concerns about the economy.
Poland's economic credibility rating improved to -1.15 at the end of 2023, compared to -1.83 in 2022, while Hungary's rating declined.
The Job Offers Barometer, which tracks online job ads, fell by 7.7 points in October 2024, indicating weaker hiring activity.
The average gross monthly salary in May 2024 was 7,575.48 PLN for women and 8,415.70 PLN for men, highlighting a persistent gender pay gap.
59.2% of companies established in 2023 were still operational in 2024, showing moderate business survival rates.
Retail sales in small-format stores grew by 3.9% year-on-year in October 2024, while supermarkets saw a stronger 9.0% increase.
Rising investment costs were identified as the biggest obstacle for businesses implementing projects in 2024.
Housing and Construction
Poland had 15.6 million housing units at the end of 2023, reflecting steady growth in residential stock.
Developers began construction on 29.6% more homes in October 2024 compared to the previous year, with a 34.9% monthly increase.
The number of housing units under construction rose by 4.1% year-on-year in October 2024, reaching 843,200 units.
Construction output in October 2024 fell by 9.6% year-on-year but rose by 1.9% month-on-month, showing some signs of recovery.
Transaction prices for new housing in Poland's seven largest markets increased by 17.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand.
Building costs rose by 0.4% in September 2024, adding to housing price pressures.